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Is the red wave crashing? Polling expert says critical ‘warning sign is flashing again’ — and it’s not good for Dems

CHRIS ENLOE | September 14, 2022


As the 2022 midterm election nears, polls increasingly indicate that Democrats will be more competitive than previously thought. The red tsunami, which once looked menacing, now appears to be nothing more than a small ripple. But polling expert Nate Cohn explained this week a key “warning sign is flashing again,” suggesting polls are overestimating Democrats’ prospects.

Jen Psaki, the former White House press secretary turned MSNBC employee, claimed Tuesday that election forecasts have “flipped,” now showing Democrats in the driver’s seat less than two months from Election Day. Indeed, polls are increasingly showing Democrats may not lose control of the Senate and potentially even the House. But those polls do not tell the whole story.

Cohn wrote in the New York Times that ahead of the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden was outperforming then-President Donald Trump in many of the same regions of the country where polls overestimated support for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Such overestimation in favor of Democrats appears to be happening again.

“That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016,” Cohn wrote.

Cohn highlighted one Senate race in particular — Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s battle against Democrat Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin — as a potential bellwether for bad polling after a recent Marquette Law School poll showed Barnes leading Johnson by a significant margin of 7 points.

Cohn explained:

But in this case, good for Wisconsin Democrats might be too good to be true. The state was ground zero for survey error in 2020, when pre-election polls proved to be too good to be true for Mr. Biden. In the end, the polls overestimated Mr. Biden by about eight percentage points. Eerily enough, Mr. Barnes is faring better than expected by a similar margin.

The Wisconsin data is just one example of a broader pattern across the battlegrounds: The more the polls overestimated Mr. Biden last time, the better Democrats seem to be doing relative to expectations. And conversely, Democrats are posting less impressive numbers in some of the states where the polls were fairly accurate two years ago, like Georgia.

When Cohn plotted the places where polls overestimated Democrats, he discovered a “consistent link between Democratic strength today and polling error two years ago.” According to Cohn, “persistent and unaddressed biases” in survey methodology — like nonresponse bias — is causing pollsters to derive misleading polls. What this means practically, he explained, is that what appears to be Democratic strength in the run-up to the election could actually be nothing more than a “mirage.”

If the same polling errors from previous elections persist this year, Republicans will handily win the House and could even take control of the Senate.

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Poll: Opposition to Trump impeachment jumps 10% among independents

by John Gage | Washington Examiner
November 20, 2019

More independents oppose the impeachment proceedings against President Trump than support them, according to a recent poll conducted after the beginning of public testimony.

A Morning Consult- Politico poll released Tuesday said 47% of independents “oppose the current impeachment inquiry,” while only 40% of independents support impeachment. The poll represents a 10% drop in support among independents for the impeachment.

Overall, opposition increased to 45%, while support for impeachment dropped from 50% to 48%. The decrease in support follows the start of the second week of testimony by impeachment witnesses.

House Democrats opened the impeachment proceedings against Trump, claiming he threatened to withhold aid from the Ukrainian government if they did not investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. The poll was taken by 1,994 United States voters between Nov. 15 and 17.

Trump Defeats Hillary in Poll, Monmouth Amends it to Give Hillary Victory

waving flagAuthored by August 23, 2016

URL of the original posting site:

The original unweighted poll showed Trump beating Hillary in Ohio 41-39, but when the poll was later amended to include more Democrats, Hillary was handed victory by a margin of 43-39. The unweighted sampling of voters was split 33.3R/29.3D/35.6I, but was subsequently changed (pages 6-7) to 29R/33D/37I in order to ensure Hillary came out on top.Partyof Deceit Spin and Lies

When Twitter users called out Monmouth University over the controversy, pollster Patrick Murray denied the poll was weighted by Party ID, even though it clearly was.

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“Just as a reminder “weighting” is the term used for actually changing the raw data to reflect the “assumptions” the pollster puts into the anticipated turnout of the election,” reports the Conservative Treehouse. “Depending on the “assumptions” (guesses about who will vote), and the “weighting” therein, the entire poll outcome can be severely manipulated and even reversed.”warning warning

As radio host Bill Mitchell explains in the video below, the vast majority of polls oversample Democrats, which is why Hillary is seemingly doing so well. Americans identify as Republicans or Democrats at a roughly even rate, so overall polling samples should be evenly distributed between Republicans and Democrats. But they’re not. Most polls ask more Democrats than Republicans who they are voting for, which is why Hillary always seems to come out on top. When the sampling is evenly distributed, Donald Trump wins the poll.

In addition, polls are being amended to make Hillary’s victory seem inevitable by adding in her favor the votes of respondents who said they wouldn’t be voting at all. Reuters also eliminated the choice of voting for neither candidate in its poll in order to artificially boost Hillary’s numbers.

or a liar Never-Hillary-Egl-sm fight Picture1 true battle In God We Trust freedom combo 2

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