Reported March 16, 2020
The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just don’t add up. The estimates based on current data are completely inaccurate. Current data shows that this virus is much less deadly that even the common flu from the 2019-2020 season.
N/A – not available
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1. Estimates have been made about the fatality rate of the coronavirus.
Often times estimates have to be made because data is just not yet available. These estimates usually involve obtaining information that is available and making estimates on what is not. We cannot tell the future but we can make educated guesses based on information available. This is what has been done with the coronavirus because this type of virus has apparently never been seen before.
2. Sometimes estimates are reasonable and sometimes they are wrong, way off.
I personally know of estimates made by actuaries (i.e. statisticians) who projected profits in a country that were way wrong. In this case the government changed the regulations related to the business in the country which resulted in tens of millions in losses in USD. I know of another case where actuaries predicted a deal to be profitable that eventually led to over $100 million in losses.
The point is that whenever estimates are made they are always wrong because no one can tell the future. Sometimes estimates end up close and sometimes they are not and sometimes they are way off.
3. The current estimate for the coronavirus fatality rate is about 3.4%.
The estimates for the fatality rate for the coronavirus are shocking. The CDC released one report in February stating the rate varies between 12% and 1%:
Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas.
A report by the World Health Organization (WHO) and China estimates the mortality rate to be around 3.8% based on actual results:
As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR2] 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease). The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).
Other reports are that the WHO estimates the mortality rate to be around 3.4%:
The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the mortality rate from Covid-19 is about 3.4%. That is higher than seasonal flu and is cause for concern – but even if it is correct, more than 96% of people who become infected with the coronavirus will recover.
As of today, the actual fatality rate for those who were confirmed to have had the coronavirus is 3.84%. This is the number of fatalities from the virus divided by the number of individuals who were confirmed with the virus.
4. The same rate for the flu is 10% (but the media tells you it’s .1%).
As The Gateway Pundit reported earlier, according to CDC numbers, in the US in the 2019-2020 flu season, there were 222,000 confirmed cases of the flu from testing and an estimated 36 million flu cases in the United States. There were 22,000 confirmed deaths from the flu.
Note that the number of deaths and confirmed cases (through testing) of the flu in the US are based on actual data. The number of individuals who contracted the flu is an estimate by experts. There is no way to know who had the flu in the US because many cases are not severe and people do not have a test done to confirm they had the flu. They believe their symptoms are minor and go on with their normal lives thinking they have a cold or something similar. Because of this, the CDC must estimate and they estimated 36 million people had the flu in this past flu season.
The rate of the number of individuals who died from the flu to the number of individuals who had the flu is therefore .1% (22,000 / 36 million). This is an estimate.
However, the rate of individuals who died from the flu to the number of individuals who were confirmed to have had the flu is around 10% (22,000/ 222,000). This is based on actual data similar to the rate for the coronavirus above.
5. Actual results for the coronavirus are lower than the flu.
Based on the above numbers, the actual fatality rates for those who were confirmed to have had the coronavirus are around 3.4%.
The actual rates for those who were confirmed to have had the flu are around 10%.
The actual data shows that the fatality rate for those who had the flu (10%) is 6% higher than for those with the coronavirus (3.8%).
6. Current estimates between the flu and the coronavirus are not comparing ‘apples to apples’.
The fatality rate that is commonly referred to in the media for the coronavirus is 3.4% from the WHO. This number is based on actual cases of those who are confirmed with the virus.
The flu fatality rate provided by the CDC includes an estimate of individuals who had the flu but were not confirmed while the fatality rate for the coronavirus does not include those who had the coronavirus but were not confirmed. This is why the flu fatality rate is .1% and the coronavirus fatality rate is 3.4%!
The two rates are like comparing apples to oranges. By doing so the coronavirus fatality rate is way overstated when compared to the flu and the media has created a worldwide crisis and panic by reporting this!
The coronavirus is not more fatal than the flu based on current data. It is much less fatal than the flu based on current data.
7. Those most at risk from the coronavirus are the elderly and sick (similar to the flu).
Similar to the flu, those most at risk of dying from the coronavirus are the elderly and the sick. The average age for those who died from the coronavirus in Italy is 81 years old. This is consistent around the world. There have been no known fatalities for any children 10 and under.
The sick are also at a higher risk similar to the flu. Current data shows that if you have no pre-existing conditions, your fatality rate if you contract the coronavirus is .9% (and what proportion of these cases are the elderly).
In summary, the coronavirus is not as deadly as is being portrayed in the lying liberal media. In fact it is not as deadly as the flu. The elderly and the sick should be protected. Everyone else has very little to worry about. Again, don’t believe what the media is telling you. They are lying again.