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Posts tagged ‘polling’

Dems Fret Harris Ceding Too Many Male Voters to Trump


By Mark Swanson    |   Friday, 11 October 2024 05:01 PM EDT

Read more at https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/harris-male-voters/2024/10/11/id/1183766/

Democrats are sounding the alarm that presidential nominee Kamala Harris is trailing Republican Donald Trump among the male vote – across the racial spectrum – by a lot with weeks to go before the election, with one donor asserting that “men are gone,” The Hill reported Friday.

Recent polls show Harris trailing Trump by double digits in some battleground polls, while a New York Times/Siena poll found her trailing by 11 points nationally. In battleground Arizona, Harris trails Trump by 12 points among Hispanic males in the 18-34 age group and by 20 points among Hispanic males 35-49. Another poll showed Harris’ support among Black voters in Pennsylvania is lower than what President Joe Biden received when he won the state in 2020, and that’s being driven by Black men.

“I don’t think people understand what a big problem we have on our hands with men,” one Democrat strategist told The Hill. “Black men, Hispanic men, men in general.”

Given that Trump defeated Hillary Clinton among men by 11 points in 2016, some Democrats are pointing to misogyny, with one telling The Hill that “not everyone is ready to vote for a qualified woman to be president of the United States.”

Republicans say that’s a cheap excuse – male voters remember how Harris ran on a progressive, identity-driven platform in 2020.

“[T]hat approach just doesn’t have much appeal to a broader range of men voters,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden told The Hill. “Thinking you can solve that now by just saying, ‘I own a Glock,’ makes that effort even more difficult.”

To combat Harris’ icy draw with male voters, her campaign is sending running mate and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to talk football and hunting in battleground Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin this weekend, The Hill reported. That comes after former President Barack Obama lectured Black men in Pennsylvania about their hesitation voting for Harris.

“Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that,” he said in Pittsburgh on Thursday.

But one Democrat donor said it’s too little, too late for Harris in 2024.

“Men are gone, at least for this cycle.”

Mark Swanson 

Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.

Polling guru Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the Electoral College in latest forecast


By Hanna Panreck Fox News | Published September 9, 2024 1:14pm EDT

Read more at https://www.foxnews.com/media/polling-guru-nate-silver-predicts-trump-has-64-chance-winning-electoral-college-latest-forecast

Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found the former president leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point. 

Harris has come out ahead in several national polls and swing state polls since taking over the top of the ticket. However, the results of the new NYT/Siena College poll, according to Silver, show that the results of the poll confirmed his election model’s view that there was a “shift in momentum” in the race.

The NYT/Siena college poll also found more voters said Harris is “too liberal or progressive” on key policy issues than voters who said they considered Trump to be “too conservative.”

According to his model, Harris has just a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College, and overall, leads Trump by 2.5 points in Silver’s national polling average. 

Harris/Trump split image
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (AP Photos)

NATE SILVER REVEALS THE ONE BATTLEGROUND STATE THAT COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR KAMALA HARRIS

“A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” Silver wrote in the update at 11 a.m. on Sunday. 

Silver initially wrote on Wednesday that Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since the end of August. Harris’ odds had decreased from 47.3% to 41.6% in that same time frame. 

Silver also noted that if Harris performed well in the debate, the NYT poll might not matter.

“The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody is going to care so much about the Times poll. We’ll have a longer narrative update on the state of the race coming later today,” he wrote.

Silver also said on Wednesday that Michigan and Pennsylvania, both key swing states, might prove to be a problem for her. 

“In PA, our polling averages had Harris +1.8 pre-DNC, but it’s now Harris +1.0. That’s before any convention bounce adjustment, which is implemented at a later stage of the model. In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now,” he wrote on X. 

Trump at Wisconsin rally
Former President Trump departs a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Silver pointed to multiple key portions of the NYT poll in an additional post on Sunday, specifically the fact that 47% of voters see Harris as too liberal. 

“I’m not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception,” Silver wrote, noting that a high percentage of voters said they don’t know what Harris stands for in the poll, suggesting there was room to improve on those numbers.

“But Harris also blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything. I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” Silver wrote. 

Hanna Panreck is an associate editor at Fox News.

Poll: Election-Shifting Percentage of Voters Admit to Illegal Voting In 2020


BY: JUSTIN HASKINS | APRIL 30, 2024

Read more at https://thefederalist.com/2024/04/30/poll-election-shifting-percentage-of-voters-admit-to-illegal-voting-in-2020/

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For the past three years, the corporate press and numerous officials in the Biden White House have asserted there is no evidence widespread voter fraud occurred during the 2020 presidential election. Some have even gone so far as to call it the “most secure” election in U.S. history.

However, a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports — a survey I wrote with a team of experts at the Heartland Institute and discussed last week on Tucker Carlson’s show — not only calls into question that often-repeated claim, it shows the opposite could have been true. According to its findings, voter fraud, especially fraud related to mail-in ballots, may have been common in the 2020 election. This conclusion isn’t based on questionable allegations but on voters’ own responses to the poll questions.

The Heartland Institute/Rasmussen survey, which was conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 6, asked likely voters who cast ballots in 2020 questions about fraudulent activities, without telling them such actions were a form of voter fraud. The results were stunning. One in five people who voted by mail admitted to engaging in at least one kind of potential voter fraud, seriously calling into question the security of widespread mail-in balloting.

For example, one question asked, “During the 2020 election, did you cast a mail-in ballot in a state where you were no longer a permanent resident?” Such an action nearly always constitutes fraud. Incredibly, 17 percent of voters said “yes.”

Another question asked if “a friend or family member” filled out a respondent’s ballot, “in part or in full,” on behalf of the respondent, which is illegal in some states. Nineteen percent of mail-in voters who responded to the survey answered “yes.”

Even more remarkably, 21 percent of respondents admitted to filling out a ballot for someone they know, such as a spouse or child, and 17 percent confessed to signing a ballot or ballot envelope “on behalf of a friend or family member, with or without his or her permission” — both potential forms of illegal voting.

Taken together, these results strongly indicate fraud and illegal voting heavily affected mail-in balloting in the 2020 election. Even if a fraction of the people admitting wrongdoing here are actually guilty, that would still equal the electoral margin for 2020.

It’s an incredibly important finding since that contest involved more mail-in ballots than any other election in U.S. history. Election officials report that of 159 million ballots cast in 2020, more than 68 million were submitted by mail, about 43 percent of the total. In addition, as the MIT Election Data and Science Lab noted, “the dramatic increase in the raw number of absentee ballots cast was accompanied by a significant decrease in the overall absentee rejection rate for the country: from 0.96 percent in 2016 to 0.79 percent in 2020.”

If the recent Heartland Institute/Rasmussen survey is accurate and one in five ballots were, in fact, fraudulent, that would suggest greater than 13 million ballots should not have been counted nationwide in 2020. That’s far more than the margin of victory for President Biden in the popular vote, about 7 million.

As troubling as these findings are, however, additional questions in the Heartland Institute/Rasmussen survey suggest voter fraud and illegal voting may have been even worse than the one-in-five figure suggests. For instance, 8 percent of all respondents — not just those who voted by mail — said they were offered “pay” or “reward” in return for voting.

Equally disturbing, 10 percent of voters said, “a friend, family member, co-worker, or other acquaintance” admitted to them that he or she “cast a mail-in ballot in 2020 in a state other than his or her state of permanent residence.” Eleven percent said that “a friend, family member, co-worker, or other acquaintance” admitted to filling out someone else’s ballot.

These questions could indicate far more fraud occurred than anyone previously thought.

It’s also worth remembering that presidents are not elected by a national popular vote but through the Electoral College. The three states in which Trump and Biden were closest — Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin — were all decided by fewer than 21,000 votes.

Biden narrowly won each of those contests, but if he had lost those three states, he wouldn’t have reached the 270 electoral vote thresholds needed to win the presidency. Instead, the Electoral College vote would have been a tie, pushing the decision to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. With such razor-thin margins and the results of the recent Heartland/Rasmussen voter fraud survey in mind, it’s hard not to wonder how big of an effect fraud truly had on the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

But regardless of how much fraud occurred, one thing is absolutely certain: States must take appropriate legislative action to protect the integrity of the next presidential election so that all Americans can be confident that the winner of the 2024 campaign will capture the White House fair and square.

There is already substantial evidence that voter fraud could play a significant role in 2024. Another survey conducted in March and April by the Heartland Institute and Rasmussen shows that 28 percent of likely voters now say they would commit at least one form of illegal voting during the 2024 election, “if given the opportunity.” Interestingly, respondents’ willingness to commit fraud was similar among Republicans, Democrats, and independents.

There is some good news, however. The threat of voter fraud can be limited dramatically by changing mail-in ballot rules. Voters who are physically able to cast their ballots in person should be required to do so, or they should be mandated to have their ballot signature notarized, significantly reducing opportunities for fraud. Lawmakers could fund public programs to increase access to free notaries for those who need them.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, just three states require notaries for mail-in ballots — Mississippi, Missouri, and Oklahoma. Only nine additional states mandate that a voter obtain one or more non-notary witness signatures when casting a ballot by mail. Most states require neither a witness nor a notary to verify signatures.

Lawmakers must ensure widespread voter fraud does not happen in future elections. That can only occur if mail-in voting systems are radically improved. Time is running out for legislators to fix these major threats to American self-government.


Justin Haskins (Jhaskins@heartland.org) is the director of the Socialism Research Center at The Heartland Institute and a New York Times bestselling author.

Polling expert loses it over new poll showing Trump is crushing Biden by double digits: ‘So absurd on its face’


By: CHRIS ENLOE | September 25, 2023

Read more at https://www.theblaze.com/news/sabato-reaction-washington-post-abc-poll-trump-10-point-lead/

Mario Tama/Getty Images

Political prediction expert Larry Sabato called out the Washington Post on Sunday over a new poll showing Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by double digits. The shocking Washington Post/ABC News poll found that if the election were held today, Trump would crush Biden among registered voters, 52% to 42%. Moreover, the survey found that Biden’s job approval stands at a dismal 37% — a metric that in and of itself signals Biden will lose re-election — because the majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy and the border crisis.

To make matters worse for Biden, approximately two-thirds of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning voters want the Democratic Party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024. Most of those respondents aren’t picky about who his successor is — they just want someone other than Biden. The poll also found that most Americans do not believe Biden is being unfairly targeted by House Republicans, who have opened an impeachment inquiry over allegations of corruption against Biden. Instead, 58% of respondents said Biden is being “held accountable” while just 32% said he is being “unfairly victimized by his political opponents.”

Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, condemned the Washington Post for publishing the poll because, in his view, the results are “laughable.”

“Ignore the Washington Post – ABC poll. It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable),” Sabato reacted. “My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you.”

In another reaction post, Sabato said he is “torn between scoffing and laughing” at the poll’s results.

Another data expert, Nate Cohn of the New York Times, also called out the Washington Post for describing the poll as “probably an outlier.”

“It’s really, really hard to release outlying poll results, so you’ve got to give credit to ABC/Post here, but I do have a fairly major quibble with ABC/Post here: if you release consecutive ‘outlying’ poll results — R+7 in May, R+10 today — you don’t get to dismiss your results,” Cohn reacted.

“If it happens twice in a row in the same race, it’s clear that this is the result of some element of your approach, and either you either need to decide you’re good with it and defend it or you need to go home,” he said.

While the poll seems like an outlier because no other survey has shown Trump with such a significant lead — almost every other poll shows Trump and Biden locked in a dead heat within the statistical margin of error — it’s not clear what in the poll’s methodology may have produced the result.

Some critics have suggested Republicans were oversampled, but the poll asked respondents about their party affiliation. Only 25% identified as Republican, while 25% identified as Democrats and 42% identified as independents.

Exclusive: Poll Shows Majority of Americans Support Voter ID, Limited Mail-in Voting


BY: SHAWN FLEETWOOD | JULY 31, 2023

Read more at https://thefederalist.com/2023/07/31/exclusive-poll-shows-majority-of-americans-support-voter-id-limited-mail-in-voting/

voting stickers

New polling provided exclusively to The Federalist shows a vast majority of U.S. voters support election integrity initiatives such as voter ID requirements and limitations on the use of mail-in voting.

Conducted by the Honest Elections Project (HEP) from July 13-16, the survey reveals widespread support among the American electorate for common-sense election integrity policies. According to the poll, 88 percent of Americans support laws mandating voters show a form of ID in order to cast their ballot, including the vast majority of black (82 percent) and Hispanic voters (83 percent). Only 9 percent of those polled opposed ID requirements.

The survey’s findings paint a vastly different picture than the one crafted by legacy media and Democrat politicians, who for years have maliciously smeared voter ID laws as Republican-sponsored tools designed to “suppress” the votes of racial minorities. Two years ago, for example, Democrats and their propaganda press allies used this tactic to smear Georgia’s passage of an election integrity law that contained a provision mandating voter ID for absentee voting. President Joe Biden went so far as to label the bill “Jim Crow on steroids.”

Not only did Georgia experience record early voter turnout ahead of its Nov. 8 general election and Dec. 6 Senate runoff, but a poll conducted after the 2022 midterms revealed zero percent of black Georgia voters said they had a “poor” experience voting in the elections.

The HEP survey also found overwhelming opposition to noncitizens and minors voting in U.S. elections. In recent years, Democrat-controlled cities such as Washington, D.C., have passed measures permitting foreign nationals to vote in their respective municipal elections. Meanwhile, blue localities in states such as Maryland and California have passed measures allowing kids as young as 16 to vote in local elections.

According to HEP’s polling data, 89 percent of voters “think that American elections should only be for American citizens, including 82% of Democrats, 80% of Black voters, and 78% of Hispanic voters.” The survey also found 72 percent of voters oppose dropping the voting age to 16.

But it’s not just voter ID and eligibility where Democrats are out of touch with voters. Among the poll’s notable findings is support for limiting the use of mail-in voting.

In the lead-up to the 2020 election, numerous states used the Covid lockdowns as a pretext for expanding the use of vote-by-mail and other nonsecure election practices. Attempts by GOP-led states to return their respective elections to pre-Covid election rules have predictably been met with pushback from Democrats, who have falsely accused Republicans of “rolling back” so-called voting rights.

Contrary to Democrat claims, HEP’s survey shows over three-fourths (76 percent) of voters believe “voting in person is better than voting by mail.” The data also reveals that 73 percent of Americans “reject automatically sending ballots without a voter’s request,” and 74 percent think practices such as ballot harvesting “should be illegal.” Meanwhile, 89 percent think “every ballot should be received by Election Day.”

The data also indicates two-thirds of voters (66 percent) support terminating no-excuse mail voting “as long as states offer two weeks of early in-person voting, including weekends.” This includes 69 percent of Hispanic voters and 55 percent of black voters, who support limiting the use of mail-in voting to groups such as people with disabilities, elderly citizens, people serving in the military, and those who “will be absent on Election Day.”

The poll additionally found widespread opposition to foreign nationals influencing U.S. elections and support for transparency in the elections process.

“Despite what the far left and many in the mainstream media would have you believe, election integrity measures continue to boast wide support among the American public,” HEP Executive Director Jason Snead said in a statement. “When it comes down to it, election integrity measures that make it easy to vote and hard to cheat are just common sense.”

The HEP survey was conducted among 1,600 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2.45 percent.


Shawn Fleetwood is a staff writer for The Federalist and a graduate of the University of Mary Washington. He previously served as a state content writer for Convention of States Action and his work has been featured in numerous outlets, including RealClearPolitics, RealClearHealth, and Conservative Review. Follow him on Twitter @ShawnFleetwood

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Axios: GOP Puts Points on Board Against Dems, Biden


By Eric Mack    |   Monday, 01 May 2023 12:47 PM EDT

Read more at https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/gop-debt-default/2023/05/01/id/1118139/

The Republican Party racked up victories in the past week, including keeping its House GOP together on raising the debt ceiling, getting a heavy hitter in the race for a battleground Senate seat, and polling strong against President Joe Biden, Axios reported.

Fiscal conservatives in the GOP do not want to raise the debt ceiling, preferring to cut Democrats’ runaway domestic spending, but they did a bit of both in the bill and effectively put the debt default in the hands of Democrats in the Senate and Biden.

Also, popular West Virginia GOP Gov. Jim Justice jumping into the 2024 Senate primary race for the seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., gives the GOP hope for flipping a Senate seat, if not forcing Manchin into a third-party or Democrat primary against Biden, Axios noted.

The polling is increasingly unfavorable for Biden in prospective 2024 races, including against former President Donald Trump.

“Zoom out from the most eye-catching headlines, and Republicans showed clear signs of momentum — from the GOP’s surprising unity on Capitol Hill to Senate Republicans’ recruitment success to polls showing Trump running competitively against Biden,” Axios wrote.

The RealClearPolitics polling average has the race as a virtual tie, with even the Harvard-Harris poll giving Trump a 5-point edge over Biden. An NBC News poll that found 70% of voters did not want Biden to run again, just days before Biden announced his reelection campaign in a Tuesday morning three-minute video. That same poll found Biden trails a generic Republican by 6 points (47%-41%), a rare sign of weakness for a U.S. presidential incumbent.

Even The New York Times, historically anti-Trump, had its election expert concerned.

“The modest Biden lead in national polls today wouldn’t be enough for him to secure reelection,” Nate Cohn wrote. “If Mr. Trump is doomed, why isn’t he getting trounced in the polls?”

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Clarence Thomas’s Duty is to the Constitution, Not a Constituency of Black Men


BY: MARK PAOLETTA | OCTOBER 27, 2022

Rerad more at https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/27/clarence-thomass-duty-is-to-the-constitution-not-a-constituency-of-black-men/

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
If you listen to corporate media, you’d think Clarence Thomas is a dark-skinned white supremacist. This couldn’t be further from the truth.

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MSNBC host Tiffany Cross recently went on a rant about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas in which she referred to him as “Tom” (short for the derogatory term “Uncle Tom”) and invoked a series of other ugly and disrespectful names. But while Cross and her fellow leftwing TV hosts have been spewing hatred, Thomas has been laying out a jurisprudence of faithfulness to the text of the Constitution that now represents a view held by the majority of justices on the Supreme Court. This view does away with the nonexistent constitutional “right” to abortion while reigning in out-of-control federal agencies and giving the Bill of Rights the respect it deserves.

Cross criticized Thomas for not representing black men in his jurisprudence, but where did she get the idea that a supreme court justice is supposed to represent a constituency? In our system of government, a judge’s job is to decide cases according to the Constitution and the law, without regard to any person. Take, for instance, Justice Sonya Sotomayor’s views on affirmative action. It is certainly not her job to represent the median views of Hispanics, 68 percent of whom oppose race being a factor in college admissions, yet she continues to support racially preferential admissions systems that categorize people by their heritage and not their merits. 

Contrary to Cross’s claim, working-class black Americans historically have been in agreement with Thomas’ views on virtually every contentious issue. Thomas has long been opposed to affirmative action and racial preference programs, and so are most black Americans. According to a 2022 poll from Pew Research Center, 59 percent of black Americans are against race factoring into college admissions. It is unlikely Cross is a part of this 59 percent. 

Justice Thomas has opined for thirty years that there is no constitutional right to abortion. According to a 2020 Gallup article, from 2001-2007, only 24 percent of black Americans believed abortion should be legal in all circumstances. From 2017-2020, only 32 percent did. In a May 2022 YouGov poll, 81 percent percent of black respondents said that abortion should be banned after the 25th week. Cross likely is unwilling to tolerate any limit on abortions up to the moment of birth, which would put her far outside the mainstream of black Americans.  

Thomas has ruled that there is no constitutional right to same-sex marriage. While that is wholly different than whether one supports or supports same-sex marriage, it is notable that a large percentage of black Americans have, until very recently, been opposed to the practice. According to Pew Research, only 21 percent of black Americans supported same-sex marriage in 2004, only 30 percent in 2010, and 51 percent in 2019, and now it is 59 percent.

On topics where Thomas has not ruled from the bench, it is noteworthy that 81 percent of black parents support school choice, but the NAACP opposes school choice. Sixty-nine percent of black Americans support Voter ID laws. Only 28 percent of black Americans support leftist calls to defund the nation’s police. 

Why do Cross and black leadership groups, like the NAACP, continue to be so out of touch with the black Americans they claim to represent? Why do they prioritize the goals set by rich white socialists? Perhaps it is because the NAACP receives significant funding from a majority of white leftwing organizations and labor unions and, therefore, may feel obligated to parrot the views of their funders. Certainly, that’s what happened in 1991 when the NAACP opposed Justice Thomas’ nomination at the insistence of the white labor unions, despite his support in the black community. Cross works for, in her own words, “a white-run media” company, and she pushes far-left views, whereas Thomas has a lifetime appointment and answers only to the Constitution and his conscience.   

Elites have worked to destroy Thomas for years because, among other things, he exposes how out of step they are with the concerns of everyday black Americans. Thomas has argued for affirmative action programs that help students of all races from disadvantaged backgrounds, but the major beneficiaries of racial set-aside programs are wealthy blacks and Hispanics. A recent analysis showed that 71 percent of blacks and Hispanics at Harvard were from wealthy families. These wealthy individuals prevent the truly disadvantaged members of their communities from getting ahead. 

During her tirade, Cross also attempted to smear Thomas by mentioning the ridiculous “pubic hair on a Coke can” comment that Anita Hill bizarrely claimed Thomas made to her many years ago. But the majority of the American people – men and women – did not believe Anita Hill’s testimony at Thomas’ confirmation hearings in 1991. A New York Times/CBS News poll showed people believed Thomas by 58-24 percent. Only 26 percent percent of women believed Anita Hill.   

In 1998, Anita Hill was interviewed by Tim Russert on “Meet the Press,” where she trashed two women who claimed to have been sexually harassed or assaulted by then-President Bill Clinton, one of whom Clinton later settled with out of court for $850,000. After Hill had zealously defended Clinton, Russert asked if there were a double standard on harassment allegations for liberals and conservatives. Hill said there is a double standard, saying, “We live in a political world, and the reality is that … there are … larger issues other than just individual behavior.” Hill meant that if you are pro-abortion, women’s groups will give you a pass if you sexually assault or harass women. Despite Hill being a blatant fraud, Cross still used her antics to smear Thomas. 

The left and the out-of-touch black leadership have attacked Thomas since he joined the Reagan administration forty years ago. Nevertheless, he does not care what they think or say. Cross’s attacks may play well to her leftist audience, but that’s not a lot of people, given she is the second lowest-rated show on the lowest-rated cable news network. 

Nevertheless, it’s important to respond to these attacks to demonstrate how out of touch she and her colleagues are. On the other hand, Thomas will continue building a long-lasting legacy by writing well-reasoned opinions and persuading a majority of his colleagues to join him in ruling in a manner that is faithful to the Constitution.


Mark Paoletta served as a lawyer in the George H.W. Bush White House Counsel’s office and worked on the confirmation of Justice Thomas. He is a senior fellow at Center for Renewing America, and partner at Schaerr Jaffe.


Is the red wave crashing? Polling expert says critical ‘warning sign is flashing again’ — and it’s not good for Dems

CHRIS ENLOE | September 14, 2022

Read more at https://www.theblaze.com/news/red-wave-polling-expert-warning-signs-dems/

As the 2022 midterm election nears, polls increasingly indicate that Democrats will be more competitive than previously thought. The red tsunami, which once looked menacing, now appears to be nothing more than a small ripple. But polling expert Nate Cohn explained this week a key “warning sign is flashing again,” suggesting polls are overestimating Democrats’ prospects.

Jen Psaki, the former White House press secretary turned MSNBC employee, claimed Tuesday that election forecasts have “flipped,” now showing Democrats in the driver’s seat less than two months from Election Day. Indeed, polls are increasingly showing Democrats may not lose control of the Senate and potentially even the House. But those polls do not tell the whole story.

Cohn wrote in the New York Times that ahead of the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden was outperforming then-President Donald Trump in many of the same regions of the country where polls overestimated support for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Such overestimation in favor of Democrats appears to be happening again.

“That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016,” Cohn wrote.

Cohn highlighted one Senate race in particular — Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s battle against Democrat Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin — as a potential bellwether for bad polling after a recent Marquette Law School poll showed Barnes leading Johnson by a significant margin of 7 points.

Cohn explained:

But in this case, good for Wisconsin Democrats might be too good to be true. The state was ground zero for survey error in 2020, when pre-election polls proved to be too good to be true for Mr. Biden. In the end, the polls overestimated Mr. Biden by about eight percentage points. Eerily enough, Mr. Barnes is faring better than expected by a similar margin.

The Wisconsin data is just one example of a broader pattern across the battlegrounds: The more the polls overestimated Mr. Biden last time, the better Democrats seem to be doing relative to expectations. And conversely, Democrats are posting less impressive numbers in some of the states where the polls were fairly accurate two years ago, like Georgia.

When Cohn plotted the places where polls overestimated Democrats, he discovered a “consistent link between Democratic strength today and polling error two years ago.” According to Cohn, “persistent and unaddressed biases” in survey methodology — like nonresponse bias — is causing pollsters to derive misleading polls. What this means practically, he explained, is that what appears to be Democratic strength in the run-up to the election could actually be nothing more than a “mirage.”

If the same polling errors from previous elections persist this year, Republicans will handily win the House and could even take control of the Senate.

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Poll: Opposition to Trump impeachment jumps 10% among independents

by John Gage | Washington Examiner
November 20, 2019

More independents oppose the impeachment proceedings against President Trump than support them, according to a recent poll conducted after the beginning of public testimony.

A Morning Consult- Politico poll released Tuesday said 47% of independents “oppose the current impeachment inquiry,” while only 40% of independents support impeachment. The poll represents a 10% drop in support among independents for the impeachment.

Overall, opposition increased to 45%, while support for impeachment dropped from 50% to 48%. The decrease in support follows the start of the second week of testimony by impeachment witnesses.

House Democrats opened the impeachment proceedings against Trump, claiming he threatened to withhold aid from the Ukrainian government if they did not investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. The poll was taken by 1,994 United States voters between Nov. 15 and 17.

Trump Defeats Hillary in Poll, Monmouth Amends it to Give Hillary Victory


waving flagAuthored by August 23, 2016

URL of the original posting site: http://www.infowars.com/trump-defeats-hillary-in-poll-monmouth-amends-it-to-give-hillary-victory/

The original unweighted poll showed Trump beating Hillary in Ohio 41-39, but when the poll was later amended to include more Democrats, Hillary was handed victory by a margin of 43-39. The unweighted sampling of voters was split 33.3R/29.3D/35.6I, but was subsequently changed (pages 6-7) to 29R/33D/37I in order to ensure Hillary came out on top.Partyof Deceit Spin and Lies

When Twitter users called out Monmouth University over the controversy, pollster Patrick Murray denied the poll was weighted by Party ID, even though it clearly was.

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“Just as a reminder “weighting” is the term used for actually changing the raw data to reflect the “assumptions” the pollster puts into the anticipated turnout of the election,” reports the Conservative Treehouse. “Depending on the “assumptions” (guesses about who will vote), and the “weighting” therein, the entire poll outcome can be severely manipulated and even reversed.”warning warning

As radio host Bill Mitchell explains in the video below, the vast majority of polls oversample Democrats, which is why Hillary is seemingly doing so well. Americans identify as Republicans or Democrats at a roughly even rate, so overall polling samples should be evenly distributed between Republicans and Democrats. But they’re not. Most polls ask more Democrats than Republicans who they are voting for, which is why Hillary always seems to come out on top. When the sampling is evenly distributed, Donald Trump wins the poll.

In addition, polls are being amended to make Hillary’s victory seem inevitable by adding in her favor the votes of respondents who said they wouldn’t be voting at all. Reuters also eliminated the choice of voting for neither candidate in its poll in order to artificially boost Hillary’s numbers.

or a liar Never-Hillary-Egl-sm fight Picture1 true battle In God We Trust freedom combo 2

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