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Betting Markets Have Trump Running the Table Days Before Election


By: Christina Lewis | October 30, 2024

Read more at https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/10/30/americans-place-their-bets-polymarket-trump-harris-election/

Former President Donald Trump dances on stage at a campaign rally on Saturday in Novi, Michigan. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Christina Lewis

Christina Lewis is a member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation.

As Americans prepare to head to the polls on Nov. 5, some voters are putting their money where their mouth is by placing bets on the election’s outcome. With less than a week left before the election, Polymarket, a betting platform and the world’s largest prediction market, gives former President Donald Trump a two-thirds chance (66.3%) of winning back the presidency. Vice President Kamala Harris has a one-in-three chance (33.8%). 

Behind the overall odds of becoming president are Polymarket’s odds for Trump and Harris in the major swing states. Trump, according to Polymarket, is the favorite to win five of the six tracked swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan is currently a dead heat, while Polymarket does not include North Carolina among the swing states on its webpage. 

Polymarket users are placing their bets on Trump in the state of Nevada, home to the gambling mecca of Las Vegas. Currently, the betting platform has Trump with a 66% chance of winning the Silver State, while Harris has a 34% chance. 

The polls, however, show the race much closer. Real Clear Polling averages show Trump winning by only 0.7 of a percentage point. Why, then, do the betting markets seem fairly confident of a Trump victory there? 

For one thing, Nevada is home to one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, at 5.6%. The state’s economy is still reeling from the havoc caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Trump is planning to address the housing crisis and inflation when he visits the state for a rally in Henderson on Thursday afternoon. 

In Arizona, Trump is seen as having a 74% chance of winning, whereas Harris has just a 26% chance. However, Real Clear Polling averages show Trump winning by 1.3 percentage points. Trump won the state in 2016 by 3.6 points, but lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by 0.3%. 

Polymarket shows Trump with a 73% chance of winning Georgia, Harris with a 27% chance.  

Shelby Arnette moved to Georgia four years ago and has noticed that she and her husband are receiving different political messaging that seems to be targeted at their respective genders. 

“I have seen different signs and things specifically advertising toward women to vote Democrat to have reproductive rights,” Arnette said. 

There’s a smaller margin between Trump and Harris in Wisconsin, according to Polymarket, with a 55% chance of a Trump victory there and a 45% chance of Harris winning the state. In 2016, Trump won the state by 0.7% but lost to Biden by 0.7% in 2020. 

Polymarket shows a dead heat in Michigan, 50% to 50%. The state is still up for grabs, as Democrats are targeting women on the issue of abortion, while Trump is banking on support from the state’s autoworkers. 

Trump invited a group of Arab and Muslim leaders to speak at his rally in Novi, Michigan, on Saturday.  

“We as Muslims stand with President Trump because he promises peace, not war,” one speaker at the rally said. “We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine. The bloodshed has to stop all over the world, and I think this man can make it happen.” 

As all eyes turn to Pennsylvania, seen by many as the most important of the swing states, Polymarket shows Trump with a 62% chance of winning the state, with Harris trailing at a distant 38%. But again, Real Clear Polling averages put Trump in the lead by a much smaller margin—0.4 of a percentage point.  

Pennsylvania resident Ruth Howard moved to the Keystone State from Oregon a few years ago. She said that she thinks Pennsylvania will play a pivotal role in the presidential election. 

“I knew it was important to vote in [Oregon], but then coming to Pennsylvania, I feel like there’s a little more opportunity that my vote will make a difference, that it could help swing the state or politics in particular,” Howard said.  

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Today’s Politically INCORRECT Cartoon by A.F. Branco


A.F. Branco Cartoon – Now Hiring

A.F. Branco | on October 23, 2024 | https://comicallyincorrect.com/a-f-branco-cartoon-now-hiring/

Bad Week For Kamala, Great For Trump
A Political Cartoon by A.F. Branco 2024

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A.F. Branco Cartoon – It’s been a lousy week for Kamala and a great week for Trump as he surges ahead in the polls. The mainstream media and the Democrats ridiculed Trump for showing up for a campaign stop at McDonald’s, but it turned out to be an ingenious move politically. No worries, Kamala, I hear McDonald’s is hiring.

War Room Guest Host Dave Bossie Discusses President Trump Dominating the Polls with Rasmussen Pollster Mark Mitchell (VIDEO)

By David Greyson – The Gateway Pundit – Oct 22, 2024

** Please keep our friend and political prisoner Steve Bannon – the founder of The War Room – in your thoughts and prayers during this time.
War Room guest host Dave Bossie discussed President Trump dominating in the polls with Rasmussen pollster Mark Mitchell on Tuesday.
Mitchell said that President Trump is doing better in the polls now than in 2016.
“Instead of taking a bottom-up approach, I would take a top-down approach because Donald Trump is polling better than he did in 2016,” Mitchell said. (READ MORE)

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A.F. Branco has taken his two greatest passions (art and politics) and translated them into cartoons that have been popular all over the country in various news outlets, including NewsMax, Fox News, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, and “The Washington Post.” He has been recognized by such personalities as Rep. Devin Nunes, Dinesh D’Souza, James Woods, Chris Salcedo, Sarah Palin, Larry Elder, Lars Larson, Rush Limbaugh, and President Trump.

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Latest national poll spells more trouble for Biden, shows him trailing all 3 top GOP candidates


Thomas Catenacci By Thomas Catenacci Fox News | Published November 16, 2023 4:00pm EST

Read more at https://www.foxnews.com/politics/latest-national-poll-spells-trouble-biden-shows-him-trailing-three-top-gop-candidates

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley weighs in on President Biden’s upcoming visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., not running for re-election.

A new national poll released Wednesday showed President Biden trailing all three lead GOP presidential candidates: former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

According to the survey, conducted this month by Marquette Law School, Trump has an advantage of 52% to 48% over Biden among registered voters, while DeSantis holds a 51% to 49% advantage in a head-to-head matchup with the president. And Haley, who also previously served as governor of South Carolina, holds a 55% to 45% edge over Biden, the largest lead among Republican candidates.

The survey showed that Trump’s edge over Biden has grown considerably since July, when Marquette’s poll showed the pair tied at 50%. It further showed DeSantis’ lead over Biden has remained consistent in that same time span.

And while all three of the top Republican candidates lead Biden, Trump is the only one who leads among Independent voters. Haley, meanwhile, has the largest support among Democrat voters compared to Trump and DeSantis.

FOX NEWS POLL: SUPPORT FOR TRUMP HITS 62% IN GOP PRIMARY

Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Former President Donald Trump, left, maintains an edge over President Biden, according to a Marquette Law School poll released this week. (FOX News)

Trump has an edge of 54% to 46% over Biden among independents. Biden leads DeSantis 53% to 47% and Haley 51% to 49% among Independents.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

At the same time, Haley draws the support of 15% of Democrat voters, while Trump gets 11% and DeSantis gets 8%.

In addition, the Marquette poll showed Trump, for the first time this year, has taken a lead among registered voters who report being reluctant to choose either him or Biden. Trump leads Biden in that category by a margin of 53% to 47%, a big shift from Biden’s 55% to 42% lead as recently as September.

Haley and DeSantis
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley holds a 10-point lead over President Biden, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a two-point lead over the president, the Marquette poll showed. (Getty Images)

The most recent poll comes as the White House continues to claim it is not concerned about polling, which continues to show Biden’s approval rating falling and his 2024 prospects waning.

JAMES CARVILLE WARNS DEMOCRATS OF DANGER LOOMING WITH SINKING BLACK TURNOUT IN 2024: ‘ABYSMALLY LOW’ IN 2022

“I mean, look, I spoke to this yesterday,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters earlier this month. “And what I said is you have to take these polls… with a grain of salt, right? And I talked about 2020… and what we saw in 2020 and what was being reported then. And what we saw is a president that was… able to bring an incredibly strong, diverse coalition to win in 2020. We saw the same thing in 2022.”

“So, look, we don’t put much stock in… polls,” she continued. “The president is going to focus on delivering for the American people. He has an agenda that is incredibly popular, and that matters. And that’s going to be what the president is going to focus on: How do we continue to deliver for the American people? And that’s the focus.”

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said earlier this month that the White House doesn’t “put much stock” in polls. (Win McNamee / Getty Images)

Democrat strategists, though, warned that Biden’s poor polling performance shouldn’t be overlooked.

“I want [Biden] to consider what is best in terms of the goal that I know he is committed to, which is defeating Donald Trump,” David Axelrod, a former senior Obama campaign adviser, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Nov. 6.

“And if he believes, based on not just what [is] in his heart but what’s in the data and what he’s being told, that he has the best chance to do it, then he should run. But you know, the thing that irritates me a little bit, Wolf, is this notion that people who are concerned are ‘bedwetters.'”

Thomas Catenacci is a politics writer for Fox News Digital.

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Today’s Politically INCORRECT Cartoon by A.F. Branco


A.F. Branco Cartoon – In The Bag

A.F. Branco | on

Democrats are very excited about their recent poll numbers being higher than Trump’s, but wait a minute, haven’t we been here before? I’m sure Hillary remembers.

2020 Democrat Poll NumbersPolitical cartoon by A.F. Branco 92019.
More A.F. Branco Cartoons at The Daily Torch.

Branco’s Faux Children’s Book “APOCALI” ORDER  HERE

Donations/Tips accepted and appreciated –  $1.00 – $5.00 – $10 – $100 –  it all helps to fund this website and keep the cartoons coming. – THANK YOU!

A.F. Branco has taken his two greatest passions, (art and politics) and translated them into the cartoons that have been popular all over the country, in various news outlets including “Fox News”, MSNBC, CBS, ABC and “The Washington Post.” He has been recognized by such personalities as Dinesh D’Souza, James Woods, Sarah Palin, Larry Elder, Lars Larson, the great El Rushbo, and has had his toons tweeted by President Trump

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WHOA: Well Respected Poll Has SHOCKING, Post Debate, Numbers – Are They REAL?


waving flagPublished on October 21, 2016

URL of the original posting site: http://clashdaily.com/2016/10/whoa-well-respected-poll-shocking-post-debate-numbers-real/

trump-clintonGuess who’s leading the polls now? Have these pollsters found something the others missed?

Rasmussen. Getting previous elections right gives them a certain credibility. For a reference point, some reviews of their past results will be included at the end of this piece.

What are the current findings?

Early results from their final debate are in, and Donald Trump remains barely ahead of Hillary Clinton in the White House Watch.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over his Democratic rival. Five percent (5%) favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns three percent (3%) support. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Yesterday, Trump was ahead by three.

— Rasmussen Reports

Yes. Trump up by three. Is that what YOU are hearing on the news?propaganda machine

As for their historical accuracy?

Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen wrote in 2010 that Rasmussen has an “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”[41] Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal reported that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections.[40][66][not in citation given] In 2004 Slate magazine “publicly doubted and privately derided” Rasmussen’s use of recorded voices in electoral polls. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were among the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election.[40] According to Politico, Rasmussen’s 2008 presidential-election polls “closely mirrored the election’s outcome.”[67]

At the end of the 2008 presidential election, there were eight national tracking polls and many other polls conducted on a regular basis. Polling analyst Nate Silver reviewed the tracking polls and said that while none were perfect, and Rasmussen was “frequently reputed to have a Republican lean”, the “house effect” in their tracking poll was small and “with its large sample size and high pollster rating [it] would probably be the one I’d want with me on a desert island.”[68]

In the January 2010 special election for the Senate seat from Massachusetts, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show that Republican Scott Brown had a chance to defeat Martha Coakley. Just after Brown’s upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. (It’s hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.)”[69] A few days later, Public Policy Polling released the first poll showing Brown in the lead, a result differing from Rasmussen’s by 10 points.[70] Rasmussen’s last poll on the race found Coakley with a 2-point lead, when she in fact lost by 5 points, a 7-point error.[71]

Journalist Mickey Kaus said, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious New York Times, go with Rasmussen.”[72] — Wikileaks

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